01/02/2025
The Drake Equation (Newton, n.d.)
The Drake Equation, formulated as part of the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) Project, is an attempt to calculate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations capable of communicating with humanity. A similar framework, the Seager Equation, estimates the number of potentially habitable planets. Looking at the results of these calculations, one cannot help but feel that our civilization has been extraordinarily fortunate.
Our good fortune is undeniable. And yet, what we call fact is always both subjective and objective, allowing room for both context and information. Consider the fine-tuned conditions of Earth: its precise location, its ideal size, the presence of the Sun, the stabilizing role of the Moon, and even the protective presence of Jupiter. Once again, our “good fortune” lies somewhere between subjective interpretation and objective information. What is difficult to place within this in-between space, however, is humanity’s insatiable desire to push toward extremes and seek ultimate answers. From this desire arises a dilemma: we are compelled to choose between believing in divine design, or believing in the existence of multiple universes born from our lack of sufficient information.
Comparison of Drake Equation and Seager Equation (비즈 한국, 2019)
It is in this tension that I wish to situate the Drake Equation—somewhere between the Anthropic Principle and the Copernican Turn. For in truth, the very birth of our civilization is a marvel of good fortune, the product of a delicate balance among countless physical constants. And yet, in reflecting on this, I find myself leaning a little more toward the Copernican side: toward belief in the existence of extraterrestrial life, and belief in the multiverse, born of the conviction that there remains so much we have yet to see.
In the face of uncertain facts, to confess such sober yet faithful belief may itself be the truest courage of an intellectual.
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