01/04/2025
The measurements of cosmic civilizations have been proposed in many different forms. The most famous is the Kardashev Scale, introduced by Nikolai Kardashev, which classifies civilizations according to their total energy consumption. Carl Sagan suggested a scale based on the total amount of information a civilization possesses. John David Barrow offered a scale based on the microscopic domains civilizations can explore, while Robert Zubrin proposed one based on the macroscopic domains they can explore.
These diverse scales invite us to imagine civilizations at various levels of advancement. But before we can imagine connecting with them, we must ask whether such a connection is safe. I believe the answer is yes, and I will explain why by turning to two key theories: Game Theory and The Great Filter.
1. Game Theory
If we take the Kardashev or Sagan scale as a benchmark, then civilizations more advanced than ours must inevitably process far more information through computers. And since their strategies will in effect become computational strategies, the logic of the computer will be their logic: always mathematically and economically optimal, with memory of past interactions.
Political scientist Robert Axelrod, in The Evolution of Cooperation, demonstrated through two famous tournaments that the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is the Tit for Tat strategy, based on the principle of reciprocity. In essence, begin with cooperation, respond in kind, and maintain trust. Even if only 5% of a community uses reciprocity, simulations like The Evolution of Trust show that this strategy spreads and evolves to dominate the entire system.
Thus, if we were ever to encounter a civilization more advanced than ours, simply offering a friendly greeting may be enough. Game theory suggests there is little danger in reciprocity.
2. The Great Filter Theory
But does this mean civilizations can always thrive just by exchanging friendly greetings? Not necessarily. Here we encounter the concept of the Great Filter.
Nothing in existence is permanent; even unions, when fueled by greed, eventually collapse. In the logic of reciprocity, conflict means mutual destruction. For this reason, the Type III Civilization (galactic level) may itself represent the Great Filter. A civilization capable of controlling an entire galaxy must, by definition, encounter others of comparable scale, and conflict is inevitable. Such civilizations, which would require 100,000 to a million years of continuous development to reach, are likely highly competitive internally as well. Blindly imitating them may only lead us into wars of excess and eventual annihilation.
A Path of Sustainable Growth
If excess leads only to ruin, and if the Great Filter is real, then humanity need not rush its development. We can afford to live more leisurely, cherishing the present while imagining the future. For imagination belongs to the realm of the mind, and in thought we can already reach toward infinity.
By acknowledging our finitude while moving step by step toward the infinite, we may discover the true path (Dao) of progress we seek. My hope is that sustainable development will open this path safely for us, allowing humanity to grow without fear while maintaining harmony with the universe.
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